Bold claim: Labour must answer for its choices if Reform beats them in Gorton and Denton. That is the core tension at the heart of today’s southeast Manchester byelection, one of the most unpredictable contests in years.
The Green Party’s leader, Zack Polanski, says the race is effectively a dead heat between his party and Reform UK, with Labour facing a reckoning if Reform edges ahead and overturns Labour’s comfortable 13,000-vote cushion. Labour’s national campaign has leaned on the argument that only Labour can halt Reform, implying that a Green vote would be a de facto vote for Reform. This framing echoes past misfires for Labour, notably in Caerphilly, where Labour lost to Plaid Cymru despite warnings that only Labour could defeat Reform.
Ahead of polls opening at 7am, Polanski asserted that Labour is deliberately splitting the left vote, which he described as an existential threat to Starmer’s leadership if Reform wins. He claimed internal Green data shows they are narrowly behind Reform, with Labour far behind, and he warned that even a narrow left split could hand Reform the seat.
Polanski’s concern is grounded in historical caution: a left split contributed to Reform’s slim victory in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last May by six votes. Labour is defending a 13,413-vote majority in Gorton and Denton, a seat where about four in five voters backed a left-leaning party in the 2024 election. The result is due to be declared around 4am on Friday.
The candidate lineup includes Angeliki Stogia for Labour after Andy Burnham was blocked from standing. Reform UK is fielding Matt Goodwin, a former GB News presenter whose public comments on women, Muslims, and citizenship have sparked criticism. The Green party has nominated Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber by trade, who previously ran as a mayoral candidate.
Experts weigh in on the odds. Prof Will Jennings from the University of Southampton notes the race is too close to call in Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape, saying Labour could face a terminal setback if it falls behind Reform and the Greens. A Labour defeat would challenge Starmer’s strategy of courting right-leaning voters, potentially signaling a lasting realignment away from Labour’s progressive base. Conversely, victory could temporarily steady Starmer and slow the momentum of a resurgent Green party, but any relief might be brief given looming local and devolved elections across England, Scotland, and Wales just ten weeks away.
During a visit to the constituency, Starmer dismissed the Greens’ drug-legalisation platform as “disgusting,” arguing it would turn parks and playgrounds into danger zones. Polanski countered that Starmer’s appearance felt like spoiler behavior, suggesting Labour believed they could win when, in reality, Labour may not be in a secure position. He warned Labour must examine its conscience if Reform wins, accusing the party of sinking to a new low with social-media attacks—posting a green syringe graphic and claiming the Green plan would endorse drugs—which Polanski called a “desperate gasp” from a Labour government.
The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Andy Gwynne on health grounds in January. Gwynne, a former Labour MP, had been under parliamentary investigation for messages sent in a WhatsApp group of local Labour figures.
And this is the part many observers want you to consider: the outcome could redefine Labour’s approach to the left, the Green surge, and Reform’s vulnerability in a contested, multi-party landscape. If you’re watching this race closely, what would a Labour defeat mean for Keir Starmer’s strategy, and should Labour recalibrate how it appeals to left-leaning voters without alienating its progressive base? Share your thoughts below.
