The amount of magma accumulated beneath Svartsengi continues to increase, with approximately 22 million cubic meters having accumulated since the last eruption in July 2025. This volume is approaching the higher end of what has been measured since the beginning of the ongoing events. A magma intrusion and eruption along the Sundhnúkur crater row is the most likely scenario, and the hazard assessment remains unchanged and valid until March 3rd. However, the Icelandic Meteorological Office continues to closely monitor developments and will update the hazard assessment if there are changes in activity. This slow but steady accumulation of magma has led to an increased likelihood of a magma intrusion and volcanic eruption, with the most likely scenario being a magma intrusion from Svartsengi towards the Sundhnúkur crater row. If an eruption occurs, it is most likely to be similar in character to previous events along the Sundhnúkur crater row. Seismic activity on the Reykjanes Peninsula has remained unchanged, with low-level seismicity detected above the dyke and continued microseismic activity measured in the Vík area, interpreted as slip-related seismicity due to stress changes in the region. The ground deformation and seismicity on the Reykjanes Peninsula are also being closely monitored, with an interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) image showing ground deformation only at Svartsengi (uplift) and nowhere else on the peninsula. The hazard assessment remains unchanged and valid until March 3rd, with the Icelandic Meteorological Office continuing to closely monitor developments and update the assessment if necessary.
